Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast To Become A Hurricane | Weather.com (2024)

T​ropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify into a hurricane and strike Texas Monday with potential impacts that include flooding rainfall, storm surge inundation, high winds and tornadoes.

N​ew hurricane warnings have been issued for the central Texas coast.

Current status: Beryl is centered in the western Gulf of Mexico and is moving to the northwest. Beryl is beginning to reorganize and is predicted to intensify en route to the Texas coast for its final landfall on Monday.

B​elow is a look at the current location, information and satellite for Beryl based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane and storm surge alerts are in effect:

• Hurricane Warning: From Baffin Bay northward to Sargent, Texas on the central Texas coast. T​his means that hurricane conditions (winds 75+ mph) are expected somewhere in the warning area by Monday morning.
• ​Storm Surge Warning: From the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay This means that life-threatening storm surge flooding is expected.

• T​ropical Storm Warning: From the northeastern coast of Mexico northward to Baffin Bay, Texas and from Sargent to Sabine Pass, Texas. Tropical storm conditions (winds 40+ mph) are expected by Sunday night in these locations.
• Hurricane Watch: From the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Baffin Bay, Texas and from Sargent to Sabine Pass, Texas. T​his means that hurricane conditions (winds 75+ mph) are possible by Monday morning in these locations.
• Storm Surge Watch: from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, Texas. This means that life-threatening storm surge flooding is possible.

Here's the latest projected path and intensity forecast for Beryl: Over the next day or so, Beryl will turn toward a weakness in subtropical high pressure over the southern United States, and because of the influence from an upper-level low-pressure system located to Beryl's west.

Landfall of Beryl as a hurricane is predicted to occur somewhere from near the Houston and Galveston areas southward to Corpus Christi.

H​ere's a look at the general timeline based on the latest NHC forecast.

• T​his weekend: Beryl is expected to be pulled northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast. The greatest chance for steady intensification into a hurricane will begin on Sunday.
• B​y late Sunday: Preparations along the Texas coast for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions should be completed.
• M​onday: Landfall is expected on the Texas coast with damaging winds, storm surge, heavy rain and a few tornadoes.

(​MORE: What The Forecast Cone Means, And Doesn't)

P​otential U.S. Impacts:

Damaging wind threat: The most likely area for damaging winds is along the middle Texas coast, but that could change in future updates to Beryl's forecast path. Everyone in the hurricane watch area should prepare for hurricane-force and/or tropical storm-force winds until the forecast becomes more certain.

These winds will arrive late Sunday into early Monday, then continue on Monday. The winds could cause power outages and tree damage in some areas.

Storm-surge flooding, high surf and rip current threats: Beryl will contribute to elevated water levels this weekend along the coast, with the peak storm surge arriving along and to the north and east of where the center makes landfall Monday. Storm surge inundation could be 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels if the peak surge arrives at high tide.

This could inundate low-lying locations on the coast, as we saw with Tropical Storm Alberto in these areas during June.

Beryl will also generate high surf and rip currents along the Texas coast this weekend before the storm arrives. The rip current threat will even extend farther east along the northern Gulf Coast, as well.

K​eep this in mind if you have holiday weekend beach plans along these stretches of the coastline.

Rainfall flooding is probable: A swath of heavy rainfall will occur both near the coast and inland over eastern Texas and other parts of the South during the first half of the new week.

Locations from the middle Texas coast into eastern Texas might see 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 15 inches not out of the question.

H​ere's the general timeline showing where there is an elevated threat of excessive rainfall that might trigger flooding.

-Late S​unday-Sunday Night: Texas coast.

-T​uesday-Tuesday night: Eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee.

A t​ornado threat is expected: Landfalling tropical cyclones often produce a tornado threat in bands of rain as they near the coast and move inland. Here's where a few tornadoes are possible from Beryl, based on the latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

-​Sunday-Sunday Night: Middle and upper Texas coasts.

-​Monday-Monday Night: Upper Texas coast into western Louisiana.

Recap

I​t began on Friday, June 28 when the National Hurricane Center began advisories on Tropical Depression Two just over 1,200 miles east of Barbados. Six hours later it became Tropical Storm Beryl.

The following afternoon it was already Hurricane Beryl. By Sunday, June 30, the first on record in the Atlantic Basin in June. That's a depression-to-Cat. 4 rapid intensification spurt in just 48 hours.

(​MORE: The Early-Season Records Beryl Shattered)

After undergoing an eyewall replacement and passing between Barbados and Tobago, Beryl made landfall just after 11 a.m. EDT Monday, July 1 over the Grenadan island of Carriacou with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Among only two other Category 4 hurricanes in history near Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Beryl was the strongest by wind speed.

D​evastation was widespread on Carriacou Island, with vegetation largely stripped bare and numerous homes damaged or destroyed.

D​owned trees, flooded streets, power outages and storm surge flooding was reported in the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados and Tobago.

While its eyewall passed south of Barbados, a 69 mph gust was clocked early Monday at Grantley Adams International Airport, the island's major airport. Grenada clocked a wind gust up to 121 mph as the center of Beryl tracked just north of the island. A gust to 64 mph was reported on St. Lucia, as well.

J​ust 12 hours after its southern Windward Island landfall, Beryl became the record earliest Category 5 Atlantic Basin hurricane on the evening of July 1. The following day, its winds topped out at 165 mph, the strongest July hurricane by wind speed on record in the Atlantic Basin.

Beryl brushed the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday, bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Winds gusted as high as 81 mph at Norman Manley International Airport on a peninsula south of the country's capital city, Kingston, Wednesday afternoon, damaging a section of roof. This was the strongest hurricane to strike Jamaica in almost 17 years, since Hurricane Dean in 2007.

A​s Beryl made its closest approach, winds gusted to 54 mph on Grand Cayman Island on July 4.

Beryl made landfall near Tulum, Mexico, early Friday morning with estimated winds of 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was the peninsula's strongest hurricane since Hurricane Delta in Oct. 2020.

W​ind gusts up to 81 mph were clocked just south of Playa del Carmen in the core of Beryl Friday morning. A gust to 48 mph was clocked on Isla Mujeres, just offshore of Cancún.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ Hurricane Beryl's Most Eye-Popping Satellite Images

-​ How To Prepare For Hurricane Season

-​ What's Been Deadliest In US Hurricanes, Tropical Storms Lately May Surprise You